AT&T-BellSouth Plans Too Slow

If you were hoping that the silver lining in the AT&T buy out of BellSouth was that it’s enormous resources would be used to boost the deployment of faster broadband, think again.

Analysts have recently been dissing AT&T’s plan to roll out a triple play product (video, phone, and internet) over its “Fiber to the Node” plan. The gist of the complaints are that it simply won’t work and that the bandwidth the technology they have adopted is not up to the task, especially with HDTV catching hold. The latest are remarks by Wahlman, an analyst with ThinkEquity Partners, who remarks:

Wahlman added that while AT&T will launch IPTV service in a handful of cities, it will only pass “perhaps one-half as many homes as originally planned…”

“AT&T may blame this on any number of reasons, including slow upgrade cycle to VDSL2, Microsoft [Corp.’s] unstable software, lack of working HDTV and probably the pending BellSouth [Corp.] merger,” Wahlman wrote. “Either way, we believe the fundamental reason is that AT&T is likely realizing that 25 megabits isn’t going to do the trick, but rather that it needs to plan for 100 megabits or more to the home today, with a path to Gigabit Ethernet to every home in the next five to 10 years at the most.”

Hey, we’ve been saying the same for years. Don’t go looking for AT&T to bring you up to speed. (And apparently, given the latest lawsuit, don’t believe that they won’t try and keep you from doing it yourself.)

Big Bucks for Lafayette Tech Business

The Advertiser this morning carries the first of what should be a long series of good news stories spawned by Lafayette’s tech cluster.

The National Science Foundation has put $600,000 behind diversifying the state’s economy by helping companies utilize new technologies.

The University of Louisiana’s Center for Business Information Technologies received the grant to create Louisiana Technology Incubator for Entrepreneurial Success to link businesses to Lafayette’s emerging technological resources…

Interested businesses are encouraged to contact the center, because a limited number of in-house slots will be available. Clients will receive fee-based office space and in-house technical, research and administrative support.

Anybody local that’s got an idea that would benefit from a lot of computing power, a lot of bandwidth and access to some of the most advanced visualization toys in world ought to start talking to Ramesh Kolluru at ULL.

BellSouth and Cox Sue Again

The Advocate reports that BellSouth and Cox have joined in a suit–and a law firm out of Houma has also filed its class action suit– to stop Lafayette from issuing its fiber to the home bonds. Kevin Blanchard does his usual excellent job of breathing history and clear explanation into a murky and important moment. I recommend traveling to the Advocate and reading his article carefully…this is going to be important enough to take a few extra moments out of your morning to fully absorb.

There are two things to notice and reflect upon. First Cox has joined this suit. Don’t be deceived by the LCTA moniker; the “association” would do nothing that Cox doesn’t desire. This is a reformation of the united front between the incumbents. Also take a minute to reflect on the obvious purpose of what the incumbents are insisting on when you get down to the description of the lawsuit. They want to make it impossible to ever lose a penny during the course of LUS doing business. They want that to trigger a bankruptcy. This is what they want to say the law says. I don’t think it does–and this is the point over which there was supposed to have been a gentleman’s agreement as to what the law meant. BellSouth and Cox have repeatedly betrayed that agreement and much of the anger on the Lafayette side is due to that. Lafayette would never have agreed to a bill that made such an absurd requirement if that was really what they thought law would be interpreted to mean.

Go on, take a look the Advocate’s story and come back and think about it with me. Go on. It’s worth the read.

The lesson of this story and the history of the conflict should be clear: you cannot trust the incumbents. You can’t “deal” with folks who don’t deal honestly. We all know what to do with bullies. What you do is take away the tools they are using to hurt you and try to make it so painful to abuse you that they go away and leave you alone. Lafayette, and potential allies like New Orleans and the Louisiana Municipal Association have plenty of ways to at least attempt that. Repeal the tool that the incumbents have used to frustrate the voters of Lafayette and eliminate municipal competition everywhere in the state: the Local Government Fair Competition Act. Oppose Hurricane relief for BellSouth and Cox. BellSouth already has its hand out for rate relief. Oppose the merger of BellSouth and AT&T at the PSC. Back plans to protect New Orleans’ wireless system from BellSouth’s strong arm tactics. Insist that emergency telecommunications projects are not crippled by clauses that are only meant to protect the profits of incumbents who failed their communities after the storms. (Half of New Orleans is still without phone service.) Local governments should be allowed to defray the costs of their emergency systems in any way that they can. Including sharing them with the citizens that paid for them. Raise a vigorous hue and cry in opposition to truly scary state-wide franchise bills that BellSouth/AT&T are trying to sneak through the legislature. The Louisiana Municipal Association should be up on the barricades about a law that will constitute a huge expropriation of local property by the state, cut local communities out of control of franchise fees they rely on, place all those monies in the control of a appointed board of three at the state level who will dole what is now “state money” out to local communities. That same law will forbid local governments from requiring that AT&T serve all the people of a community in return for the use of community-owned rights of way. Rally those in the development community that believe that the only way to remain competitive in a big broadband, high tech world is to do for ourselves what the incumbents refuse to do for us.

In a word: Fight!

If there was ever a moment in Louisiana history that we could inflict a little pain on the bully that the giant phone company is, now is that moment. Big bullies can be forced to back off by a little guy who fights back hard–that’s what happened during the fiber referendum in Lafayette. But if you back away they just find new ways to take advantage of you. Anyone who has survived in a middle-school schoolyard knows that. You really have no choice, in the end, but to fight. And in Louisiana now is the moment when that is most likely to be successful.

That’s what ought to happen. We’ll see….

The Phone Company Supports Muni Broadband…

…provided it gets the contract.

Apparently AT&T (who is in the midst of buying out our very own BellSouth) is ok with ‘tax-supported” muni broadband as long as it is the cable company has to contend with “unfair competition.”

TechDirt has the story of the phone company standing tall for its principles when offered a little green by the Chicago suburb of Bedford Park to provide free muni broadband to its residents.

Just in case anyone really thought that phone company was concerned about principle when they wax histrionic about the inherent unfairness of tax-supported broadband and the inherent value of free enterprise competition…that was when they weren’t able to make money off the concept.

Remind you of another company’s little bit of “free enterprise” hypocrisy? Me too.

Local Media: AOC Show on Net Neutrality

Update 6/5/06: The AOC segment discussed in this post is available for download. You can also paste this URL into your standalone video player.
—————-

Happily coinciding with the national launch of the Save The Internet Coalition I’ll appear tonight at 9:00 on the AOC show “Meet the Democrats.”

The topic for the day is “Net Neutrality” and in the second part of the show host Stephen Handwerk and I discuss legislation that threatens to turn the current open internet into a system in which those who pay special, new fees to companies like AT&T/BellSouth will be allowed to cut to the front of the line whenever there is network congestion. –That’s the crux of the suggested system. Those who pay a fee cut to the front of the line. The rest of us will wait until they clear out of the way. (You can bet that if network congestion is allowed to become a profit center for the phone companies there will be of it. Lots more. Users are not going to like the new regime.)

If you’d like to do something about it or would welcome hearing more I suggest you watch the show. The discussion itself is interesting ands there are good references given. Getting in touch with your congress critters is a good idea…the corporations count on the public not being on top of give-aways like this one. Congress responds to real voter interest. But only you can make sure that they know this is one of the ones that counts.

Incidentally, this is NOT a partisan issue. (Mike and I made a well-received presentation on related state-level topics at the last Lafayette Republican Party Executive Committee meeting and that organization was a banner supporter of Lafayette during the fiber referendum…abuse by the incumbents is thoroughly bi-partisan issue.) Most of this legislation is now in the process of emerging from the House Commerce committee where Louisiana in not represented. Now is the moment to contact your federal representatives. Senator Vitter sits on the crucial Senate Commerce Committee and his vote on this issue appears up for grabs. Call or write Vitter to encourage him to support the open internet.

Lawsuit? On Today’s Deadline UPDATE

UPDATE: 1:20 I’ve just received an email that says that the class action lawsuit that had died but was recently revived was filed this last Friday. (Thanks, Reader!) That’s BellSouth working its game behind the scene. This lawsuit goes away and reappears on a schedule that suits BellSouth and only BellSouth and even though its name is not at the top of the page everyone understands that this has to be attributed to the phone company. My guess is that this means that artillery that has been wheeled into place will be used. The battle is about to be joined.

Supporters of Lafayette and big broadband in Louisiana should ready their mailing lists, sharpen their pencils and prepare to make the trek to Baton Rouge.

——–Original post——–

Today’s the day…if AT&T/BellSouth or Cox is going to sue the Lafayette again over the latest bond ordinance today is the day it will have to happen.

The bond ordinance which enables the city-parish to sell bonds supporting the Fiber To The Home project has a 30 day challenge period beginning on the date the ordinance was passed and notice published in the paper. That period ends today. If the incumbents or their agents do not sue by close of day the bonds may be issued and sold on terms described in the ordinance. It’s not just that we could finally begin–the day may be even more important than that: Bond holders are extravagantly protected by Louisiana law and the constitution. Once they become stakeholders involved a successful challenge to the bonding process or to anything which is the basis for repaying their money becomes much more difficult. This is a large part of why BellSouth/AT&T has been so eager stop the process before bonds can be sold.

In the past BellSouth has sometimes waited until the very last minute to file. So we’re not out of the woods on this one until we check tomorrow morning and see what came in on the fax machine. But in any case today will be a red-letter day. It will mark either the day that the incumbents sued Lafayette yet again or the day the bonding ability for the project was secured.

The silence on promised lawsuits and on any of the major telecommunications bills languishing in the legislature has been deafening. BellSouth has not sued as it all but promised to do after the ordinance passed. The on-again-off-again class action lawsuit that “third parties” had promised was on-again but has apparently vanished again. Bills to repeal all or part of the Local Government Fair Competition Act sit quietly. Bills to legalize New Orleans’ WiFi network languish. Emergency communications bills have not made it into committee hearings. Bills whose only purpose is to be there if BellSouth or Cox should need to mess with municipalities bonding authority or amend the (un)Fair act sit without further comment. There is big artillery arrayed on the battlefield but not a shot has been fired… I think, and have thought for awhile that this silence is all linked to Lafayette’s bond issue. Horse trades are being made.

All we have to do in order to figure out what is going on is to wait. A lawsuit will trigger one avalanche; it will enrage Lafayette yet again and the push for repeal will be on. The abscense of a lawsuit means to me that BellSouth and Cox have cut a deal. Which bills advance in the legislature and which die will tell the story as to what those deals were.

Stay tuned.

Sunday: The Dark Side of Democratic Media

Bruce Sterling, best known as brilliant science fiction writer, is also concerned student of modern media. I’ve mentioned the democratic potential of the intersection of cheap digital media (cell phones, movie quality consumer video cams), sophisticated editing on commoditized computers (page design, web design, iMovie…) and of big, cheap broadband media distribution to let much, much larger numbers of people tell their stories. That’s still a good thing, or so I think–one of the most potent political events of the fiber referendum last year was the taping and subsequent digitization and wide dispersal of the push poll via email blasts and internet stories.

But Sterling points to a dark side he illustrates by examining a series of technology-enabled scandals in India:

Viewed in this light, India’s woes are just the colorful Bollywood version of a global story. In a world where cheap distributed media is cached on the Net, there are no truly local problems.

Ready access to the means of digital communication is a force for democracy. It gives voice to ordinary citizens and disseminates vital information that those who command power and status would rather bury. More power to the heroic, censor-busting bloggers in China and Iran! But the ability to capture private images and conversations and deliver them worldwide also empowers dark cabals of wiretappers and blackmailers. These people are no friends of liberty and free expression: They aim to destroy public figures while remaining safely hidden in obscurity.

It’s worth thinking about. Things that used to be easily hidden from public view are going to be made public. The only real solution is to become more tolerant of people’s foibles. We’ve got a tradition of that down here. Both Long and Edwards’ famed personal lives received a pass. Nobody down here thinks public figures are perfect. But in a lot of places this is going to be a bit of a shock. It’ll be a little stomach-turning to watch it mature.

Laginiappe:
Seeing Sterling’s name reminded me of a book he wrote back in 1999 that was partly set in Louisiana in the 2040s: Distraction. It’s a sort of hallucinatory bio-cyberpunk piece and a really great example of the book and the man’s work. (A longish review) But the Louisiana part is a lot of fun…it includes a Huey Long style character and some fairly realistic Cajun’s … for 2040s and is set in world where global warming is putting the Netherlands under water. It’s an entirely different read in 2006 than it was in 2000….

Save the Open Internet–Act Nationally, Act Locally

LafayetteProFiber is by design oriented toward local issues. The name is a good indication. But here’s a national issue that pro-fiber partisans in Lafayette and broadband advocates everywhere can get behind: Saving the open internet. That cause has acquired the bland name “network neutrality” but the issue is real and is coming to a head in Congress. A new coalition is launching Monday called Save The Internet and it is bringing together a raft of supporters from the American Library Association to the Consumers Union to the Gun Owners of America to MoveOn.org…a pretty impressive array from every corner of the map.

The immediate worry which prompted the coalition to form is a bill, acronymed “COPE”, which is coming up for a vote in the US House Commerce Committee. A internet storm has been building since AT&T CEO Whitacre said that AT&T planned to begin surcharging content providers for premium, higher-speed internet services. Other phone company executives jumped in in support. This would require changing the day-to-day working of the internet works in a pretty radical way…a way that goes well beyond imposing a few new fees on Google.

The Global Issue: The Open Internet vs. Cutting in Line

The open internet is the internet we’ve all grown used to. You can go anywhere and do pretty much anything. Everyone has the same privileges…once you get on the big network. If I send someone an email it lines up with the email, search requests, uploaded research papers, and commercially purchased video downloads. Like the line at the grocery store, it doesn’t matter who you are or what is in your basket…you wait your turn at the routers with everyone else.

The big telephone companies want to change that and they are having pretty good success with some of our Federal legislators. The corporations want to change the old model where everyone-waits-their-turn to allow networkers owners to move some users to the head of the line–if you pay them. If they have their way it will matter who you are and what’s in your basket. If you are a corporation, like Google, or iTunes, or any other bandwidth-hungry business you can pay the phone companies and your business will move to the head of the line. The rest of the world waits. If you are a ‘mere’ user movies from a paying provider like iTunes might come down in a flash but those from non-paying NetFlix are slow and jerky. It will suddenly matter a lot who you are and whose product is in your basket.

The corporations say that this plan will speed up the network and allow its expansion as more bandwidth-hungry applications come on line. But that isn’t the full story. Exerting the sort of control they imagine means looking into the packet stream, determining what the packets contain, who ”owns” it, and then whether or not to move it to the head of the line. Aside from privacy issues this uses resources and slows down the line. The process of “monetizing” the line-breaking privilege costs bandwidth. The same equipment could move more bits in the same amount of time without the process that speeds up the few.

There is an alternative: build a bigger, faster pipe. Build more capacity. This is the grocery store solution to the sort of congestion that results when the lines get too long: open new checkout stands until the wait is tolerable. That’s been the solution solution to date. And that solution will also work for bigger, faster networks.

The idea of paid line breaking as the new model of network function is frustrating enough…but the dynamics of this new plan are even more worrisome. Right now internet providers compete on speed and price on the internet side of their networks. (Most also sell phone or cable.) The problem for them is to figure out the balance of speed and price that yields them the most return for what they have to invest. The only way to make more money off the internet is to sell more bandwidth to more people. And the only practical way to do that is to sell it more cheaply in order to entice new customers. Generally this is a good dynamic for the customer. (If we had some real, robust, competition the dynamic would be even better.) This results in increasing amounts of a product that gets ever cheaper. The process is called “commodification” — and the network owners don’t particularly like it–especially not when they see websites like iTunes or ebay using “their” bandwidth to make lots of money.

But the new plan to allow folks to ‘cut in line’ for a fee changes the dynamics that produce cheap, fast bandwidth. Suddenly the network owners have a financial interest in seeing some folks go slower…the folks they’d like to convert to using their “premium” line-cutting services. Now they need to decide what balance between fast and slow internet users yields them the best return on investment. The decision about when to upgrade service and build faster, cheaper, bigger, pipes is shifted away from the solution always being one where “more and faster” yields the biggest income to one where sometimes deciding NOT to upgrade a network leads to higher incomes by pushing bandwidth purchasers to join the more expensive ‘cut to the head of the line’ services. Consumers see higher prices and less available bandwidth than they would without such a plan that has these dynamics.

There are a big batch of other issues involved from the fact that we and companies like Google already pay for our bandwidth and the really bad effects that this will have on innovation and international competitiveness but those are mostly side-effects of the dynamics I describe above.

The Local Issue: What It Means Locally

So net neutrality is a real issue with effects that matter to people where they live even though only the Feds can really do anything about it one way or the other. Joining with others to oppose these changes on the national level is a very good idea and it’s a good thing that someone is taking up the job of coalition-building on this issue. They deserve our support.

But there is another very local point to make. The only reason that AT&T-BellSouth, Verizon and the others can contemplate such a move is that they have so little competition in the last mile. Everyone’s local last mile. Only a little less than 60% of the country has even two broadband providers. All that really has to happen for their ‘new’ internet to emerge is for the cable companies to agree to do the same and nobody will have a real choice on this issue. Frankly, the cable companies are already doing the same–they are currently pushing their VOIP (“internet telephone”) offerings to the head of the line. Cable companies aren’t yet charging outside corporations for it but the technical ability is clearly already in place. Competing VOIP services and their regular internet customers are already having to take what is left over. No, the cable companies are going to sit back and not utter a word during this cat fight–unless the real net neutrality rules appear to be about to go in. Then you can expect to see a sudden eruption of support from the cable companies.

Theres an old economic and political term for this kind of behavior; it’s called collusion. Monopolist in different regions and duopolists in the same area collude to maximize their individual profit. It makes good economic sense but allowing it is terrible public policy. But the phone and cable companies are not invulnerable to competition. They are not monopolists in the backbone portions of the network–there is considerably more competition there. Their real power to force the “new internet queuing system” on customers and providers comes from their owing the line into your home. Only a few Americans have more than two competitors from which to choose. That’s a real problem. Economists you need at least three competitors to begin to escape monopoly pricing. That’s the magic number both former Chairmen Powell and Hunt both mentioned during their presentations at the Freedom To Connect conference recently. Lafayette will hopefully soon be one of the few places to have three real broadband alternatives: Cox, BellSouth, and LUS. What’s even more unique is that the third alternative, LUS, will have bandwidth to burn with its fiber to the home network. It can solve the waiting-in-line problem simply by having so much capacity that even the hungriest applications don’t slow down its network and cause people to wait in line.

The bottom line is fairly simple: The problem of net neutrality only arises because the interests of network owners and network customers are naturally opposed. Owners want to maximize profit. Customers want to minimize cost. Where competition exists these two can be reconciled. Where effective competition does not exist it must be created. No one knows yet whether fiber optic networks will turn out to be natural monopolies. If they are then the only way to insure that networks are run in the interests of customers is for the customers become the owners in the last mile through cooperative or municipal efforts. If enough places do so private providers will decide it is in their best interests to leave the internet alone. For this stategy to work municipal providers will have to be a credible threat and that means clearing the way for municipal competition.

The federal COPE bill in its present form does include a clause forbidding states to simply outlaw municipal networks. But it would not protect local bodies from laws like Louisiana’s which does not directly outlaw municipal networks but do make them forbiddingly difficult to get into and unnecessarily expensive to run. Such laws must be outlawed at the federal level or repealed by the states. A stable solution to the net neutrality problem will have to be primised on significant penetration of big broadband–that is, Fiber To The Home.

Act Nationally, Act Locally

We should all work to defeat the national-level attempt to reorganize the network. The Save the Internet coalition’s action page is a good place to start.

We should, as well, work to repeal the Local Government Fair Competition Act in Louisiana. The availability of Lafayette’s solution, FTTH, is the surest bulwark against monopoly or duopoly abuse not only in pricing but also in assuring the existence of an open network into the future.

If COPE or something very link its present form does goes through it will be all the more important for local places like Lafayette to be allowed to build high speed networks. They may well be the last places where the spirit of the original internet survives.

The day may come when folks visit Acadiana for the experience of a little French, some good music, hot food, and a taste of the unfettered network their grandparents go on about……

It’s Working In Utopia; Unbundling in Utah

Competition is working in Utah where a regional consortium of cities calling itself “Utopia” is building out a Fiber To The Home infrastructure in member cities. (Services are provided by third-party participants.)

Comcast, the regional cable provider, has lowered its prices to area communities that have, or will soon acquire, the service according to a piece on DSL reports. Other cities in Utah are not being offered the deal.

The triple play is available for pennies under 90 dollars. That’s a big savings for residents that want that level of service.

But the exciting news is that competition has killed the triple play bundle. Comcast is offering the services unbundled for 29.95 apiece–there’s no discount for buying the bundle. That’s the bigger marketing news. The whole point of bundling has been to capture the lucrative big-ticket buyer and lock them in. So “deals” were only offered to that class of customer. It appears that Comcast has been forced to start fighting for the customer who’s not quite so profitable. And that is the really, really good news for the average joe in the Utopia cities.

Related stories out of Utah in the recent past have focused on deals similar to the recent Cox announcements in Lafayette and Baton Rouge which offered a good deal for a longish contract-based triple play in cities where Utopia’s services were not yet actually being offered. Comcast’s (and Cox’s) hope was to lock customers up before the choice went live.

This breakthrough indicates that those customers that took Comcast up on their sweet deals might have been wise to wait a bit…you can now get a better deal without the contract and for only the parts of the triple play that the customers actually desire.

I certainly hope it works out that way here as well.

Salon.com Technology | The corporate toll on the Internet

Boing Boing provides a link to an excellent story, “The corporate toll on the Internet” which details the business plan that the Bell companies hope to impose on the internet. Our own “not so local” boys AT&T /BellSouth are leading proponents of the plan.

Boing Boing, with uncharacteristic bitterness says in its response to the article:

Maybe the answer is just more ISPs. More long-haul pipe (either physical or wireless), more rights-of-way cleared in cities, more of everything — especially information about what a bunch of carrion-feeding, lying jackals AT&T are, and who else you can give your business to.

The article itself is easy to read; disturbingly so…that it clarifies matters so nicely may be part of what upset Cory Doctrow of Boing Boing. For instance, rather than simply repeating the lame claims of the incumbents that they would never do anything to upset their customers because the competition is so fierce, the author does what a normal person might do–look around and ask “What competition?” The answer, of course, is “Damned little.”

But if you don’t like your Internet provider, would you really be able to go elsewhere? Cerf, who is now Google’s chief Internet “evangelist,” pointed out in the Senate hearing that only 53 percent of Americans now have a choice between cable modem and DSL high-speed Internet service at home. According to the FCC, 28 percent of Americans have only one of these options for broadband Internet access, and 19 percent have no option at all.

And even for that 53 percent who are lucky enough to have two choices that duopoly is not all that much of an improvement:

He adds that “every economic theory we know suggests that when there’s a duopoly” — in this case between cable broadband and phone broadband — “there will be tacit collusion in the market.”

That’s true, and few reporters have the depth of understanding to recognize it.

The author goes through the technical bits with the same clarifying verve.

If you’d like to understand this noise about network neutrality this article is an excellent primer.

Recommended.